Wednesday, April 29, 2015

The African Mega-Diaspora

There are a lot of Africans moving into Europe, legally and illegally, and the most spectacular manifestation of this are boatloads crossing the Mediterranean. The usual gang of liberal idiots think all this is just fine, and that Europeans and other White people have a 'duty' to give their own countries up to accommodate the African sprawl. This is because liberals, despite their rhetoric, really, really hate science and math because they're so full of facts and depressing conclusions, so they'd much rather have feel-good narratives than actual analysis of such messes.

Some have blamed our intervention in Libya, etc., for causing the refugee problem. Well, that might add a trickle to the flood, but the reason is the African fertility rate. There are currently over a billion Africans, and their outrageous birth rate means that, with no changes. it'll be over 4 billion by the turn of the century. So if Africa can't support even one billion, that means that over three billion will have to go live in Europe and America over the next few decades. And, BTW, their fertility rate won't change much in their new homes. If anything, the improved medical services will increase their birth rate.

Over at, Steve Sailer writes:

Africa on the Brink

The governments of Europe are confronting an epochal choice in the Mediterranean. Do they allow Europe to remain on course toward inundation by the African population explosion, inevitably turning Florence into Ferguson and Barcelona into Baltimore?

The conventional wisdom is that it’s unthinkable to stop the African tsunami. Veteran public radio correspondent Sylvia Poggioli assured gullible NPR listeners on Monday:

This is a human tide that cannot be stopped,” she says. … Europeans have to start providing legal channels that will allow them to seek asylum here. This is a humanitarian crisis, says Mascena, that cannot be solved by use of force — or by leaving these desperate human beings bottled up in Africa and the Middle East.

Or will Europeans adopt the sensible policies of Australia and Israel that have succeeded at turning back Camp of the Saints-style invasions by boat?

The Sub-Saharan African population bomb is the most obvious long-term problem facing global peace and prosperity. We’ve been lectured for decades about climate change, but the staggering fertility rates among black Africans have been largely hushed up over the last quarter of a century. We’re supposed to assume the problem will solve itself without any white people ever being so crass as to mention that it’s even a problem.

While birth rates have dropped in much of the world, they remain staggeringly high in much of Africa south of the Sahara. The simplest measure to work with is the total fertility rate, a projection of babies per woman per lifetime. While many countries have dropped below the replacement rate (for example, Iran is at 1.85), there are 35 countries in black Africa with total fertility rates over 4.0, compared to only four elsewhere on earth.

The highest TFR is seen in desert Niger at 6.89 babies per woman. You could argue that Niger in the southern Sahara is an unimportant wasteland, with only 8 million people back. (Oh, wait, that was back in 1990. Now it’s up to 18 million.)

Even more worrisome are giant Nigeria (177 million people) at a TFR of 5.25, Ethiopia (97 million) at 5.23, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (77 million) at 4.80.

And that’s assuming that chaotic Congo is actually counting its vital records properly. UN demographers recently discovered that they had been understating the current total fertility rate in Africa by 0.25 due to shoddy record keeping by African governments. Thus, two years ago the United Nations Population Division released a shocking update to their population projections, revising the forecast for the continent of Africa upward to 4.2 billion in 2100 from 1.1 billion today.

That is about a half dozen times greater than the population of Europe.

Africa is almost certainly not going to add over three billion residents over the next 85 years. Something else will happen instead, ideally a decline in African fertility to sustainable levels rather than mass migrations or a rise in the death rate.

Africans will attempt to decamp en masse to Europe and to other first world countries, such as America.

If Africans aren’t allowed to get away with that, however, they might actually deal with their own fertility excesses, just as almost everybody else outside Africa has more or less done.

The problem is that this reform needs to happen soon. Due to the phenomenon of “population momentum,” even after the Total Fertility Rate falls to the replacement rate, the population keeps growing for about another 40 years.

It’s not impossible for black cultures to learn to show some self-restraint. The total fertility rate in Barbados, for instance, is only 1.68, and in poorer Jamaica it’s 2.05.

Even dystopian Haiti is down to 2.79 from 3.80 at the time of the earthquake in 2010, although with little thanks to the enormous number of NGO charities that white people run on that densely populated and deforested Caribbean country to keep the Haitians fed. After the 2010 earthquake, I looked for foreign charities boasting online of providing contraception to Haitians, but could find almost none. Apparently, that would be racist, even though a lower population growth rate clearly ought to be the highest priority for that impoverished land.

It’s important for naïve white people to understand why black Africans aren’t terribly inclined to limit their own numbers, at least not without strict immigration restriction and constant hardheaded prodding by Westerners to undertake family planning.

Europeans used to be less naïve about African proclivities.

Read the rest here:

1 comment:

  1. If the West cut off economic and food aid to sub-Saharan Africa the problem would solve itself in very short order. There would be a very rapid die-back to the population levels that were self-supporting and sustainable a century ago, with around a 90% death rate among the IQ-55 population. If the West cut off medical assistance against AIDS and the rest of Africa's absolutely fascinating cornucopia of plagues and pestlances also, H. Africansis might well go extinct within three years. ("And nothing of value was lost.")

    The same might well happen to IQ-55 H. Africansis populations infesting the First World, as they are, in the aggregate, unable to support themselves in non-tropical environments lacking abundant low-hanging fruit, nor have they the intellectual wherewithal to contribute to an industrial economy in any manner more complex than picking the white fuzzy bits off the cotton plants and stuffing them in a bag. They also lack the intellectual wherewithal to grasp that they lack the intellectual wherewithal. Whites are quite aware of these facts but are stigmatized for admitting they've noticed.

    And this will happen sooner or later. Without orderly, prosperous, industrialized White nations filled with productive White taxpayers to foot the bill, the gravy train screeches to a halt and the whole continent, and every other place H. Africansis has been permitted to colonize, turns into Zimbabwe--or, rather, what Zimbabwe would be without the Great White Fathers in Washington and Geneva to send them hundreds of millions of dollars a year in rice, wheat, corn, and "economic development" aid money, all paid for by Whitey--a few hundred thousand IQ-55 neolithic cannibals living in mud huts and making idols in the shape of airplanes for human sacrifice, to bring back the Big Juju free food and Big Juju free AZT pills to keep the AIDS carriers alive a few more years to spread the virus ever further. A continent, in other words, as bare of humanity and human works as the one Columbus found.